E-scooters and e-bikes set to grow by up to 10% in next five years

The global electric mobility industry size overall stood at $101.67 billion in 2022 and will exhibit a CAGR of 19.9% from 2023 to 2030, according to the "Electric Mobility Industry Data Book, 2023 – 2030," published by Grand View Research.

This growth comes on the back of an exponential rise in smart cities and a gradual uptick in charging infrastructure. The strong outlook of electric mobility will also rely on the launch of new EVs, innovations in automotive technologies, urbanisation and per capita income. Mass awareness and education regarding electric mobility will elevate the trajectory of EVs across emerging and advanced economies.

According to the data book, the global push to adopt sustainable practices and strong policies to curb carbon emissions have expedited the penetration of electric two-wheelers. Several automakers have also upped investments in research and development activities to augment the footprint of e-scooters. To illustrate, in April 2022, Honda Motor announced pouring USD 64 billion into R&D to introduce 30 EV models globally by 2030.

E-scooters

According to a recent report by Technavio, the global e-scooter market size is estimated to grow by 4.2 million units from 2022 to 2027. The market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 9.38% during the forecast period. Moreover, the growth momentum will accelerate. APAC will account for 81% of the market's growth, the report said.

Key drivers include the declining prices of Li-ion batteries, low operating and maintenance costs, as well as subsidies and incentives offered by governments of different countries.

An increasing awareness about the need to curb emissions created by vehicles is also having some impact. Additionally, two-wheeler manufacturers have also started investing in high-performance electric motorcycles, which is also expected to have a positive impact on the market growth during the forecast period.

Major factors which might hinder market growth will include challenges in finding appropriate services to fix, service and repair the machines, and the general maintenance complexities posed by e-scooters.

A more significant hinderance to market growth is around safety concerns, with many accidents reported in the past few years. In Paris this year, around 90% of Parisians voted to ban the 15,000 e-scooters thought to be on the road, following accidents and the death of a woman.

Deputy mayor David Belliard, a green party politician in charge of transport in Paris, told Le Parisien newspaper "that the nuisances caused by scooters now outweigh the advantages to the city."

"In terms of security, environment and the sharing of public space, it would be complicated to continue," he said.

In 2021, 24 people died in scooter-related accidents in France, including one in Paris. This year, Paris registered 337 accidents with e-scooters and similar vehicles in the first eight months of the year, from 247 over the same period in 2021.

In the UK, there were 882 accidents involving e-scooters in 2021, while in Japan there were 88 reported incidents of collisions between individuals and electric scooters in 14 jurisdictions from January 2020 to May 2023.

E-bikes

The global e-Bike market is projected to reach $77.2 billion by 2028 from an estimated USD $51.5 billion in 2023, at a CAGR of 8.4% from 2023 to 2028, according to a recent report by Research and Markets.

With the growth in the automotive industry, there has been a rise in air pollution. To control the emission rate, the inclination towards green and clean mobility solutions for daily commutes is growing. This is leading to increased demand for e-Bikes globally. Asia Oceania is forecasted to lead the e-Bike market.

E-Bikes assist in optimum space utilisation and help achieve a faster commute in urban and highly populated areas. Governments of many countries in Europe, North America and Asia Oceania are working toward supporting the usage of e-Bikes through subsidies and regulatory changes to reduce traffic congestion stress, ultimately helping to decrease emissions and improve air quality.

For instance, in Italy, the government offers a subsidy of up to $527 in municipalities with over 50,000 inhabitants to purchase new bicycles and e-Bikes. Such initiatives are attracting consumers.

Risk factors and challenges

That said, like with e-scooters, there are risks with e-bikes, if not quite on the same scale. Being much heavier than standard push bikes, they are more difficult to manoeuvre, and their pace also can increase the likelihood, and potential severity, of accidents.

With e-bikes, there is also a significant risk of the battery catching fire, as has been documented in reports around Europe. These fires have been due to the failing of cheaper L-Ion batteries.

Speaking in a UK-based report, Stephen Curtler, product safety manager at Electrical Safety First, commented: "When lithium-ion batteries fail they create a fire unique in its ferocity. When this happens, the battery goes into a process called thermal runaway, which is almost impossible to stop once triggered.

"The battery is made up of many individual cells, so when thermal runaway occurs, these cells heat up to an extreme temperature, causing the neighbouring cell to fail and catch fire in what is a domino effect.

"This process releases oxygen, meaning a fire of its kind is much more difficult to bring under control."

Better regulation and infrastructure needed

Despite these issues, e-scooters and e-bikes continue to grow in popularity because of their convenience and environmental credentials, but also because they can be purchased and ridden in many places without any specific road-license, or with a provisional license, and helmets are not mandatory, at least in the UK.

As such, part of the issue in Europe and across rest of world lies in regulation, or lack of it, and some reports suggest that infrastructure needs to be adapted to meet the changing needs of road users.

Reporting on the U.S site Techbullion, Angela Scott-Briggs notes: "While some cities and regions have made notable strides in this endeavour, others may still lack dedicated e-bike lanes or adequate charging stations. Many states and cities are beginning to accommodate and regulate these popular vehicles. For example, California has passed legislation, known as the Omnibike Bill, regulating where e-bikes can be ridden.

"The dearth of appropriate infrastructure amplifies the vulnerability of e-bike riders to accidents and collisions. Therefore, it becomes crucial for urban planners and policymakers to proactively address these infrastructure gaps, ensuring the safety of e-bike riders."

Road ahead

Although there are currently some issues with these two-wheeled EVs as well as generally with electric vehicles, they will inevitably play a part in our future as we try to cut CO2.

As the Grand View Research report notes: "With the transport sector being one of the major contributors to GHG emissions, investments in e-mobility could help them achieve climate neutrality objectives. Financial incentives, including exemptions and tax reductions, will ramp up EV adoption, thereby fostering electric mobility.

"The competitive scenario alludes to notable investments in organic and inorganic growth strategies, such as product offerings, technological advancements, R&D, collaborations, mergers & acquisitions and geographical expansions. To illustrate, in July 2022, Lime rolled out an AI-powered computer platform to enhance e-scooter safety. The company will start with its Advanced Sidewalk Detection system that can reportedly identify when the e-scooter is being ridden on a pavement (in real-time.)"

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